Description

This analysis provides a forecast of LPT prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 4.528391 5.389907 6.347813 7.488561 8.806567 10.277952 12.041198
2025-07-27 3.458411 4.615302 6.031315 7.877902 10.206631 13.028757 16.688483
2025-08-03 2.649495 3.897838 5.554251 7.881807 11.031302 15.103217 20.716374
2025-08-10 2.016691 3.239135 4.981948 7.595914 11.353173 16.483228 23.923318
2025-08-17 1.574514 2.740532 4.514513 7.334219 11.607441 17.723437 26.985930
2025-08-24 1.303307 2.438655 4.268904 7.330099 12.186738 19.423444 30.792103
2025-08-31 1.097869 2.198402 4.070465 7.351221 12.776493 21.157300 34.758070
2025-09-07 0.917829 1.963508 3.836999 7.269752 13.172663 22.603504 38.375657
2025-09-14 0.737248 1.688668 3.486213 6.931404 13.091727 23.267299 40.795072
2025-09-21 0.629580 1.533897 3.325631 6.899249 13.511679 24.754631 44.620294
2025-09-28 0.539854 1.397162 3.175853 6.861608 13.906867 26.216736 48.491993
2025-10-05 0.509022 1.383709 3.267212 7.291210 15.183825 29.273357 55.248914
2025-10-12 0.459953 1.320467 3.250993 7.515445 16.116727 31.830434 61.385168
2025-10-19 0.426569 1.288638 3.297475 7.872973 17.339542 34.999689 68.818479
2025-10-26 0.371503 1.189281 3.178324 7.866695 17.844746 36.893572 74.099071
2025-11-02 0.307603 1.050330 2.944169 7.578246 17.746872 37.646800 77.343389
2025-11-09 0.255693 0.931160 2.735789 7.316181 17.669479 38.420434 80.659619
2025-11-16 0.224100 0.864006 2.645083 7.311789 18.133289 40.270798 86.115011
2025-11-23 0.197831 0.806568 2.569626 7.332777 18.651110 42.259392 91.952312
2025-11-30 0.171201 0.740392 2.458903 7.251462 18.929656 43.777814 96.955650
2025-12-07 0.139996 0.648364 2.258412 6.913860 18.584999 43.979162 99.343106
2025-12-14 0.122535 0.601314 2.179523 6.881774 18.949090 45.689271 104.874708
2025-12-21 0.107214 0.557631 2.102638 6.844217 19.294588 47.379470 110.459558